Friday, April 29, 2011

Welcome to the Blogosphere

Currently, 9450 has 1,136 page views in just under three months. Those numbers will trickle up, one view at a time from family members, my girlfriend and close friends. Not exactly Google type numbers here, this I know. But I still feel like this is a turning point for me as a blogger.

I hate that word - blogger. It has a negative connotation in my mind. When I think of a blogger, I envision a middle-aged guy with male-pattern baldness and dirt under his fingernails, sprawled across his worn out and frayed couch in a dirty wife beater and shorts that struggle to reach the top of his knees, hiding behind his Burger King-crumb filled Asus, hurling expletives at no one in particular on his "Sox Sells" blog because his beloved Red Sox, of which he considers himself to be a "die-hard" due to the two hats of different colors displayed in the rear window of his 1996 tan Hyundai sedan and a bumper sticker that reads: "Jesus Hates the Yankees," lost game 19 of 162 in extra innings against the Kansas City Royals.

So that is what I'm trying to avoid.

I created this blog for my athletic communications internship at Saint Joseph's University, where I attend Graduate School with a focus in Writing Studies. I craved a sports writing outlet because in the real world, my staff writer's position for a fledgling medical publication in South Jersey was and still is, making me want to jump out a window. Consider the title of this recent gem of mine: "Researchers Perform Comparison of Amputation and Infrainguinal Bypass for High Risk Patients"

No idea what that means.

I didn't expect much from the blog - only that my friends would occasionally glance at a few posts every once in a while and my parents would tell me how that phone call from ESPN was right around the corner. But as I wrote, I found that I wanted to be heard. Screw the credits from the internship, I'm doing this for me. (This is not true, I need those credits. There will be no credit-screwing here). I started posting my most recent entries on Facebook and Twitter. One of my friends recommended Reddit, I posted on there as well. As I wrote, some of my friends who aren't basketball fans, occasionally came up to me and said they read the blog and felt as though they could hold a conversation on the NBA now. Maybe they were just being polite, but the feedback was helpful.

So my question is, how do I expand? Well, expansion is relatively easy thanks to social media. The real question is, how do I get seen without creating a seven car pileup? My initial answer was: just write better than everyone else. Quality wins out. The problem is, quality takes time. The longer I spend on each post, the more desperate I become for page views. I don't get paid for this. Page views are my little reward.

Page views are the lifeblood of a website or blog. Without them, the blog is just an online personal diary. But there is so much online, distinguishing yourself from the guy next to you without the ESPN brand on your blog is nearly impossible. I say nearly because there are quality blogs out there from quality bloggers and journalists and reporters. They are what I strive to be. But like I said: how do I get there? I want to be them right now. Like the 25 year old in 2011 that I am, how do I get what I want, TODAY?

Well, there are other blogs that distinguish themselves by creating the aforementioned bloody car crash. I could make my own drama. But that's not me. That's them...right? They are so outlandish, so entertainment/rumor/sexual innuendo-based, that I wonder why they are even covering sports in the first place. Am I talking about Deadspin? Yeah, I guess I am. I understand Deadspin and it has uncovered real news stories (I especially liked the feature on the BYU honor code). But in my opinion, dick pics and Rex Ryan's wife's feet have no place in sports journalism.

But for every Deadspin, there is a Grantland.com, Bill Simmons' future website that features some of the best scribes in the world, including Malcolm Gladwell, Chuck Klosterman and Katie Baker, who contributed to Deadspin.

Online, quality does not always win out. Drama and controversy often take the top spot and generate the most views. The loudest are usually the most ill-informed, yet they are often the most heard (see: Trump, Donald). I'd like to think Simmons understood this and created Grantland.com to change it.

In class, we speak of ethics, cultivating sources, citing, on and off the record, background, deep background and all of that kind of stuff.

But I can't help but wonder if we are losing that commitment to ethics. I can't compete with the big boys right now. Hell, I can't compete with basically anyone right now. But I have enough outlets at my fingertips where, if I'm controversial enough, if I offend just the right group of individuals, I will be heard. I could join them, just this once. I'll get some readers and then do my own thing. The page views will sky-rocket and the numbers will hit me like a drug to the vein. And so I do it again, and again and again, until I have everything I want and I am everything I've always hated.

And I just think that's sad.

Welcome to the blogosphere.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

LA Linked

In the summer of 2009, the Los Angeles Lakers had a relatively simple decision to make. They had just defeated the Orlando Magic in five games to reclaim the Larry O'Brien trophy. In that series, starting small forward, Trevor Ariza averaged 11.3 points a game, while shooting 49.7% from the field, including 47.6% from three.

Ariza broke through as the Lakers starting small forward with his defensive length and an above average three point shot. The hometown product was in his fifth year in the league and already on his third NBA team. He spent one year at UCLA before being drafted in the second round by the New York Knicks. He was then traded to the Magic, who ultimately traded him to the Lakers. With his stellar finals performance, Ariza proved he could withstand the bright lights of the post-season as well as the pressures of playing alongside Kobe Bryant. Ariza had officially mesmerized Lakers nation, having them believe he would soon develop into a Scottie Pippen-type player to Kobe's Michael Jordan.

With his contract up, it was widely assumed Ariza would take whatever offer was on the Laker table, sign with his hometown team and continue to grow into Kobe's strong-armed sidekick. Negotiations stalled. Ariza asked for 7-8 million a year. The Lakers offered 5-years, $33.7 million or about $5.8 million a season. Ariza had other teams interested, including the Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets. The Lakers number would go up, he thought. He had LeBron James recruiting him via text, for God's sake. He had the leverage.

But he didn't. The Lakers are big business and they're good at it.

The Lakers offered the same deal to Ron Artest. He accepted.

The Lakers didn't need a Pippen-type player. They had Lamar Odom and arguably the best big man in the game in Pau Gasol, plus a still developing 7-foot center in Andrew Bynum. The knock on Pau and the Lakers team was they were soft. They needed to get bigger, stronger...meaner. With the Artest signing, the Lakers got what they were looking for in spades.

And with that, Trevor Ariza was on the move once again. This time to Houston where he would replace Artest, essentially signing the same deal the Lakers were offering - five years, $33.9 million.

The free agent small forward swap between the Rockets and the Lakers has forever linked Ron Artest to Trevor Ariza and vice versa. The statistics will be compared. The question, "did the Lakers make the right decision?" will be repeatedly asked.

"Of course I was upset, but there is nothing I can do about," Ariza was quoted as saying to the LA Times.

Although the Lakers ultimately chose Artest over him, Ariza held no ill feelings toward Ron. In fact, it was Artest who had the difficult time shaking Trevor Ariza's shadow, routinely mentioning Ariza in post-game interviews. There was also Artest's bizarre tossing of Ariza's shoe in his first game back to LA. Artest even admitted to the LA Times before the 2010 playoffs that he "can't compare" to Ariza and that "he's a better player."

Still, common sense (of which Artest has little) says the Lakers made the right call, having won a championship last year in large part to Artest's defensive prowess on Kevin Durant in the first round and Paul Pierce in the Finals. It was Artest's 20 point outburst in game 7 against the Celtics that sealed the Lakers back to back championships.

Houston quickly soured on Ariza and his poor shooting percentages and traded him to New Orleans in the off-season where he partnered with another great player, Chris Paul.

This season, both players underperformed with similarly disappointing stat lines. Artest's inability to grasp the triangle had worn on Laker faithful. Rumors of Lakers management making Ron available via trade coincided with the rumors Artest asked for a trade. Both rumors were denied. Ariza got off to a hot start for the Hornets pacing New Orleans to an 11-1 start. But as the season progressed, his shot continued to look worse. Both players seemingly were not living up to their identical salary of $6,322,320.

The post season, however has brought Artest and Ariza back together, which has surprisingly brought out the best in both players.

Regular season:
Artest: 8.5 pts 39.7% fg, 35% from three, 3.3 rbs., 2.1 asts., 1.5 stls.
Ariza: 11.0 pts. 39.8% fg, 30.3% from three, 5.4 rbs, 2.2 asts, 1.6 stls.

Post-season:
Artest: 13.4 pts., 52% fg, 43.8% from three, 5.0 rbs., 2.1 asts., .8 stls.
Ariza: 16.2 pts., 41% fg, 38.9% from three, 6.8 rbs. 3.0 asts., 1.6 stls.

On the court at the same time (Post-season): via StatsCube
Artest: 14.4 pts. 55% fg, 50% from three, 5.3 rbs, 1.3 asts.
Ariza:  17.9 pts. 45% fg, 44% from three, 5.5 rbs., 2.5 asts.

Like everyone else, I fell for it. I fell for the comparisons. I wondered if the Lakers made the right decision. Truthfully, I still wonder. Count me as one of the Lakers fans who thought losing Ariza was a major step back. I was obviously wrong. Watching Ariza now, something is just off. He is a tremendous talent, but the confidence needed to be great just doesn't seem to be there.

The great players in this league are 50, 40, 90 guys -  they shoot 50% from the field, 40% from 3 and 90% from the line. In my mind, Ariza had the tools to be that player. Instead he has regressed from the 2009 Finals. This season he shot 39% from the field, 30% from 3 and 65% from the line. 39, 30, 65 is no where close to his ability. That's just a lack of confidence - five teams in seven seasons will do that to a man.

In the coming days, the Lakers will likely defeat the Hornets in the first round and a new storyline will emerge. But for Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza, the link between them will never fade.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Manu Doubtful for Game 2?

Manu Ginobili is doubtful for Game 2 against the Memphis Grizzlies, according to mysanantonio.com. San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich was quoted as saying that the Spurs are preparing to play game 2 like Ginobili will not be in the lineup and remain "in that mode."

Ginobili's absence leaves the door open for a Memphis Grizzlies team who already stole a road victory in game 1 on Sunday.

What We Learned - East

Part II. - EAST

We thought...the Bulls would dominate the Pacers in a series sweep and enter the second round as the hottest team in basketball.
The Bulls could and probably should sweep the Pacers. But let's not pretend this has been a cake walk for the Bulls. Derrick Rose has been fantastic - as good as advertised. Fans have been chanting MVP since January and yet he still manages to live up to the hype. I have never seen that type of athleticism from a point guard. But speaking of hype, where is this defensive prowess from the Bulls that I have been hearing about all year. The stats tell me it's there. But I don't see it in this series. I see a team struggling to defend a simple pick and pop with Darren Collison and Tyler Hansbrough. I see a team who could easily be down 0-2 in this series if not for a Pacers team losing a 10 point with three minutes remaining in game 1 and a Darren Collison sprained ankle in game 2. Frank Vogel has his Pacers team playing hard on every possession. We were told the Bulls would do the same. Yet in game 2, coach Thibs admitted during an in-game interview on TNT that his team lacked energy all night. Look, it is human nature to underestimate an 8 seed. So game 1 was understandable in a way. But two nights in a row? Shouldn't happen. Not from a championship contender. The Pacers have a bunch of athletes and hard nosed players that will not lay down for anybody. I give them credit for making the Bulls earn every bucket. Vogel has earned the right to remove "interim" from his title.

We thought...the Sixers missed a golden opportunity in the final 14 days of the regular season to move up in the standings and avoid the Heat.
The Sixers won 41 games because they were more athletic and simply out ran you for 48 minutes. Unfortunately for the Sixers, they ran into a Heat team that employs three guys who are more athletic and who can out run them for 48 straight. The Sixers lost this series in the regular season. Imagine this young squad going up against an old and vulnerable Celtics team? Frustrating. Look, the Sixers were not going to win this series. And we also knew it could get statistically ugly for some guys. Andre Iguodala, you may want to look away.

Iggy's stats:
GM 1: 37 mins: 2-7 FG, 4 pts.
  • 2-3 @ the rim
  • 0-1 10-15 feet
  • 0-1 16-23 feet
  • 0-2 from 3
  • True shooting percentage: 28.6%
GM 2: 36 mins: 2-8 FG. 5 pts
  • 0-1 @ the rim
  • 0-0 10-15 feet
  • 2-5 16-23 feet
  • 0-2 from 3
  • True shooting percentage: 28.2%
Now to his credit, Iggy is also averaging 7.5 rbs and 8 asts in those two games, which makes him so very frustrating. He's a hell of an athlete, and should have gotten stronger consideration for defensive player of the year. But only attempting four shots at the rim and only one from 10-15 feet in two games is just mind boggling to me, ya know considering he can't shoot. This tells me he can't get to the rim on his own. Collins needs to draw up more plays that can get Iggy to the rim or to the free throw line. Settling for long two-pointers and threes is a win for the defense and Collins knows it.

We thought...Toney Douglas would be an X-factor in this series.
And that was before Chauncey Billups went down with a leg injury. Coach Mike D'Antoni listed Billups as "very questionable" for game 2. Toney Douglas moves from the bench to the starting lineup for at least game 2 against the Celtics. What does this mean? Well, it may allow D'Antoni to run more with Douglas at the helm for the Knicks. Billups could be back for game 3 but Douglas has experience filling in for Billups. He started 9 games for the Knicks this year, but in the six he started from March 2-10 when Billups was out with a thigh injury, Douglas averaged 16.8 pts and 6.8 asts a game and the Knicks went 4-2. For the year, the Knicks averaged 108.3 points per 100 possessions. In the six games Douglas started, the Knicks scored 116.5 points per every 100 possessions. Yes, Douglas can fill it up, but is he physical enough on the defensive end to contain Rajon Rondo? While the Knicks were more offensively efficient when Douglas started, they gave up more points defensively when he started as well. The Knicks gave up an average of 106.9 pts per every 100 possessions for the year. When Douglas started, that number rose to 110.4.

Douglas' move to the starting lineup hurts the Knicks already weak bench. Anthony Carter will provide the toughness and Shawne Williams, another predicted X-factor, will have to provide instant offense for the Knicks when the starters get a blow.

We learned...the Magic made a massive error in committing to Gilbert Arenas.
Gilbert Arenas' contract:
  • 2010-2011: $17.7 million
  • 2011-2012: $19.2 million
  • 2012-2013: $20.8 million, player option
  • 2013-2014: $22.3 million
Gilbert Arenas played 12 minutes and scored six points in the Magic's game 1 ten point home defeat to the Atlanta Hawks. If I'm GM Otis Smith, I'm nervous. If I'm Dwight Howard, I'm bolting.

We learned...Jermaine O'Neal is alive and Shaq isn't.
Last week, I asked if the two O'Neals could form one decent starting center for the Celtics. After game 1, it looks like Jermaine O'Neal may be able to do it all by himself. Charles Barkley noted that Jermaine went to see legendary NBA trainer Tim Grover during his latest stint on the injured list at the end of the year. Jermaine looks like he lost weight and is moving particularly well. Kudos to Jermaine for putting in the effort to get back on the floor. Going 6-6 from the field gave the Celtics an unexpected but much needed lift in game 1. Can he sustain throughout the playoffs? If he does, I need to get Tim Grover's number.

We learned...Carmelo Anthony wants the ball in crunch time...and that may not be a good thing.
I wrote yesterday how Carmelo Anthony wanting the ball in the closing seconds may not be a good thing for the Knicks. Statistically, he is one of the best in the league in crunch time. I point to Henry Abbott's blog detailing how Carmelo is 47% in shots with the game on the line, which is number one in the league. But you should also take those stats with a grain of salt. Kobe Bryant, who I consider the ultimate closer, was behind guys like Glenn Robinson, Eddie Jones and Damon Stoudemire on that same list. Why? Well Kobe shot only 31.3% in "game on the line" situations. But he also took the most shots (115) of the entire group. Melo had taken 44 when Abbot compiled his stats in January of this year. I'd take the experience over the percentages. Kobe took 71 more shots with the game on the line in his career than Melo. Those are 71 more experiences to recall, 71 more defensive reads, 71 more coaching tendencies to soak in, 71 more times a team has asked you to put them on your shoulders.

So yes, we learned Carmelo wants the ball in crunch time and that statistically he should be the one taking the shot. But what we saw in Game 1 wasnt a facade. Ray Allen hit the big shot, not Melo. In my mind, Melo isnt 47% with the game on the line. He's 0%. But game 2 could be different. And it looks as though D'Antoni is more than happy to give Melo another chance, at least according to the NY Daily News. If it was my call? Give me a pick and pop with Amare. Thanks.

Monday, April 18, 2011

What We Learned - West

The NBA may have stumbled onto a new platform for their playoff coverage. Starting the playoffs on Saturday and having them end late Sunday night maximized the league's exposure. It didn't hurt that nearly every game went down to the last minute and 8 seeds are beating or nearly shocking number one seeds. The top 2 seeds in the west lost their opening games for the first time in more than 20 years. This weekend had more of the NCAA first round, win or go home atmosphere, with upsets the norm and questions aplenty.

One question I have: what is the value of a "go-to-guy" in the playoffs? Out west, the lack of a go-to-guy seemed to doom the Spurs and Nuggets. In the East, we saw Melo take ill-advised threes in the closing minute against the Celtics. With that, let's explore what we thought and what we learned after watching game 1. I am focusing on the Western Conference today (I have a real job, ya know) – tomorrow the East.

We thought... the Grizzlies front line of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol would physically and statistically outperform Tim Duncan and co.
The Spurs actually out rebounded the Grizzlies 40-38 yesterday but Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol each had monster games outperforming a rejuvenated and spry Tim Duncan. Zach's 25 and 14 along with Marc Gasol's 24 and 9 overwhelmed Duncan who still had a nice game of his own with 16 and 13 (including a key offensive rebound and assist to Matt Bonner who hit a three pointer in the closing minute to give the Spurs the momentary lead). After the game, Duncan admitted he was playing Gasol while keeping "half an eye" on Zach Randolph. Both players took advantage offensively. Bonner made two big threes down the stretch but DuJuan Blair and Antonio McDyess must help Duncan on the boards. McDyess and Blair combined for only 7 rebounds.

We thought... the Lakers would pound Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom against the small Hornets front line.
This series is not about Kobe Bryant. I know that will be hard for Kobe to believe, but he needs to take a backseat in this series. Trevor Ariza can guard Kobe. He's long and he plays Kobe chest to chest. Of course, Kobe automatically takes this as a personal challenge and forgets that he has teammates. Chris Paul can annoy Kobe Bryant when he drives to the lane- CP3 is always a league leader in steals for a reason. The matchups for the Lakers are in the front court. Get the ball to Gasol! Nine shot attempts against Carl Landry is awful game management by the Lakers. that's on Phil. Yes, Gasol needs to demand the ball, but as a big, that is all he can do. He needs someone to facilitate the offense and execute the proper game plan -  and the game plan must run through Pau. This is elementary stuff. There no excuses for yesterday's poor performance by the two-time defending champs.

We thought...the Denver Nuggets would have problems down the stretch without a "go-to-guy."
Having a go-to-guy in the NBA is a double-edged sword. Having a player, like Kobe Bryant, who demands and accepts the pressure of a game-deciding shot is a luxury and eases the burden for the rest of the team. Problems occur when a team has a player who thinks he is a go-to-guy (see ‘Melo vs Celtics last night or Andre Iguodala vs anyone) and ignores the offense or takes a bad shot with the game on the line just because he has the green light. Knowing the "go-to-guy" will take the shot in the final moments, makes it easier on coaches who can game plan defensively against one player instead of all 5 on the floor. The Nuggets are without that Kobe-like closer and therefore must rely on a different guy each night to make it happen. Because of this, execution is critical. Failure to execute a play designed for a specific player will ultimately place guys in decision-making positions that are out of their comfort zone, which leads to poor or untimely shots - especially on the road. Both occurred for the Nuggets last night in the final minute of their 107-103 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Kenyon Martin shot a long 22-foot two pointer from the left wing with the shot-clock winding down that was well out of his range and rhythm. Felton’s attempt was especially atrocious, heaving a contested three-pointer with 12 seconds left, down 3. Felton should have remained patient, attempted a higher percentage two-pointer (if available) and then stretched the game with fouls.

We learned... the Spurs can win this series - if Manu is on the floor.
Matt Bonner hit two straight threes for the Spurs in the final moments and were a Shane Battier three away from sealing a game one victory against the pesky Grizzlies. Still, Ginobili handling the ball down the stretch places everyone back in their respective roles - where they are most comfortable. What makes the Spurs the Spurs is that they they easily accept their roles on the team and they, to a man, played them to perfection all year. Now suddenly their playmaker is out for game 1. Who fills that role down the stretch? That question was not answered yesterday. Ginobili has proven time and again that he can withstand the pressure with the game on the line. He has hit 3 of the Spurs' 5 FG in the final 24 seconds when they are down by 3 or fewer. Both George Hill and Richard Jefferson missed open threes that would have given the Spurs the lead or tied the game in the waning seconds.

We learned...CP3 wants you to remember he's still the best point guard in the league.
Derrick Rose had a sensational game 1 against the Pacers, but for my money, Chris Paul displayed one of the greatest pure point guard performances in NBA history last night against the Lakers. The statline: 33 pts (16 in the 4th), 7 boards, 14 asts, 4 stls doesn't even come close to telling the story. Chris Paul making Aaron Gray look good -  now that right there tells it all.

                    Chris Paul making Aaron Gray look like a competent big man.


We learned…the Thunder are lacking a third scorer.
Charles Barkley nailed this on the head last night in his post-game coverage. The Thunder received insane performances from Kevin Durant (41 pts, 9 boards) and Russell Westbrook (31 pts, 6 boars, 7 asts). We have come to expect those type of stats from Durant and Westbrook during the regular season. But it will not be the norm for the Thunder throughout the NBA’s second season. Oklahoma City must find a third scorer and James Harden will have to be that guy for the Thunder. After the All-star break, Harden was the leading scorer of those who came off the bench in the NBA. He needs to take some pressure off KD35 and Westbrook, if the Thunder want to advance in the playoffs. The Thunder also need more contribution offensively from Serge Ibaka (1-8, 3pts). Ibaka can hit the 8-foot to mid-range jump shot. If he can show the Nuggets he can make those on a consistent basis, it will open up the lane for himself, Durant and Westbrook.


Thursday, April 14, 2011

Western Conference Playoff Preview

Last night, the Lakers blew a 20 point lead, before finally putting away the pesky Sacramento (Anaheim?) Kings in overtime to secure the second seed in the west, solidifying the western conference matchups. On Tuesday I previewed the Eastern conference playoff matchups. Now that the dust has finally settled on the 2010-2011 NBA regular season, we go out west, where the road to the Finals is nearly impossible to navigate.

1. San Antonio Spurs Vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies
2. Los Angeles Lakers Vs. 7. New Orleans Hornets
3. Dallas Mavericks Vs. 6. Portland Trailblazers
4. Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. 5. Denver Nuggets

Let's preview!

San Antonio Spurs Vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Regular season H2H: 2-2

Last week, I preposterously predicted  the Memphis Grizzlies would take down the San Antonio Spurs in seven games to become only the fourth 8 seed in NBA history to win a first round series.

Why would I do such a thing when every ESPN analyst from Tim Legler to Marc Stein has the Spurs winning in 5 or 6 games. Am I an idiot? Sure. Am I wrong? Probably. Will the Spurs simply storm through the Grizz on their way to the second round? Nope.

The Grizzlies tanked... er rested their starters... for the last two games of the regular season, just so they can play the Spurs. Why are they so confident? Teams don't just a pull a Wild Thing in Major League II and say "I want Parkman." No, they want to beat who they can beat. The Grizzlies can beat the Spurs 4 out 7 times.

The Grizz matchup particularly well with the Spurs. The big front line of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will likely have their way on the glass against Tim Duncan and DuJuan Blair. Duncan averaged only 11.2 points and 8.6 rebounds against the Grizz in 3 regular season games. Look for those numbers to rise as Popovich will shorten his playoff rotation and finally let the Big Fundamental eat.

The Grizzlies and Spurs each have firepower off the bench, with O.J. Mayo and George Hill respectively. Despite the Grizzlies deadline acquisition of Shane Battier, the bench advantage has to go to the Spurs due to the sharp shooting of the red rocket, Matt Bonner and the undrafted rookie out of UMass, Gary Neal. These guys, along with Manu and Richard Jefferson spread the floor, allowing Tony Parker to get to the paint. Due to their surplus of athletic wings, the Grizz have the luxury of throwing different guys at Manu Ginobili, which may help disrupt Manu's herky-jerky offensive style. The Grizz could assign Tony Allen to Manu and hope he plays lockdown D, freeing up other defenders for the Grizz and perhaps stopping Tony Parker's easy path to the basket.

Last night, Manu Ginobili went down with an elbow injury against the Suns. While it didn't appear to be
serious, he will have an MRI today anyway. It's probably nothing, but it could be something. I'm just saying.

UPDATE: Manu Ginobili was listed as doubtful for Game 1. I guess the elbow was something.

Look, I am probably way off here. But if I'm right, I'm calling myself a genius.
Prediction: Grizzlies in 7

Los Angeles Lakers Vs. New Orleans Hornets
Reg. Season H2H: Lakers 4-0
The Hornets battled Chris Paul trade rumors early in the season and David West's torn ACL late in the season, and still managed to grab the 7 seed in the West thanks to the calming influence of first year head coach Monty Williams. Still, this series has a 1 vs. 8 feel to it. Let's do a Hornets good news/bad news!
Good news for the Hornets: Former Laker bench warmer and current Hornet bench warmer, D.J. Mbenga is back in LA!
Bad news for the Hornets: Hornets undersized center Emeka Okafor is really an undersized power forward and undersized power forward Carl Landry is really an oversized small forward. What I'm saying is that the Hornets are really small.
Prediction: Sweep

Dallas Mavericks Vs. Portland Trailblazers
Reg. Season H2H: 2-2

The Dallas Mavericks were 24-5 when Dirk Nowitizki went down with a right knee injury. Three games later, Caron Butler was lost for the season with his own knee injury.The Mavericks could only summon two victories out of the nine games Dirk missed, but regrouped to earn a 3 seed and their 11th straight 50-plus win season.

Despite the annual success, Mark Cuban's Mavericks have yet to win a ring and seem to be missing something. Cubes may have constructed his greatest Mavericks squad to date (minus Brandon Haywood's insane contract). Unfortunately injuries, old age and young talent underperforming (I'm looking at you Roddy Beaubois) have once again derailed any hopes of a Larry O'Brien trophy.

Speaking of teams who know a thing or two about dealing with injuries, the Portland Trailblazers come into the playoffs on a hot streak. Since March 28, the Blazers have beaten each of the top 4 seeds in the west. When Brandon Roy opted for surgery on both of his knees, the Blazers decided to run their offense through LaMarcus Aldridge. That decision, along with the All-star snub, fueled Aldridge and he has earned his way into the All-NBA second team discussion, despite not being an All-star.

Portland GM Rich Cho should garner strong consideration for executive of the year for his off-season signing of Wesley Matthews, who filled in nicely when Roy was out, as well as for the deadline deal that brought Gerald Wallace to the pacific northwest (which I intitially knocked. Real smart, this one). Both deals, and the consistent play of guard Andre Miller, helped the Blazers withstand the annual Greg Oden Season Ending before the Season Even Began Surgery as well as a multitude of injuries and games missed from other key players. Although Roy is back and playing again (albeit not at his All-star level), LaMarcus Aldridge has assumed the leadership responsibilities for the Blazers and will be their go to guy in crunch time during the playoffs.

While the Mavericks have the pedigree and a fantastic road record (28-13), I am going with the Blazers here because they have dealt with adversity all season while the Mavs seem to be mentally fragile. Fragile doesn't win in the playoffs.
Prediction: Blazers in 6

Oklahoma City Vs. Denver Nuggets
Reg. Season H2H: 3-1
This series will be centered around the mid-season acquisitions of both teams. You know them by now: Denver receiving Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Timofey Mozgov, picks and cash. Oklahoma city trading for Kendrick Perkins, Nate Robinson and Nazr Mohammed. Both teams made gutsy mid-season moves and both seemed to be pleased with the results.

9 questions:
  1. Who is the Denver Nuggets go to guy in crunch time?
  2. Do the Nuggets need one?
  3. Will Kendrick Perkins' knees hold up throughout the playoffs?
  4. Can either team hold their opponent to under 100 pts/gm
  5. Are Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari playoff ready?
  6. Will James Harden thrive in his expanded role as third scorer in this year's playoffs?
  7. Can Oklahoma City shoot 40% from the 3 pt line?
  8. Can the Nuggets bigs handle the twin towers of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka?
  9. Will George Karl shorten his rotation?
4 X-Factors
  1. James Harden - Needs to establish himself as a consistent third scorer. It's one thing to score 20 off the bench in February against the Kings, but can he do it in the playoffs? Although Harden comes off the bench for Ok. City, he will likely face starter quality defenders when he is in the game thanks to Nuggets deep roster.
  2. Daquan Cook - We know the Nuggets' J.R. Smith can gun it from anywhere on the right side of half-court. Cook needs to be that guy for the Thunder. He will be asked to make open shots off the bench when Kevin Durant passes out of the double team or when Westbrook drives to the basket.
  3. Ty Lawson- Denver's defense has improved dramatically since the 'Melo trade. Lawson, not particularly known for his defense, will be asked to stay in front of the speedy Russell Westbrook during fast breaks and mad crashes to the hoop. Lawson is probably the only guy in the NBA who can actually do it.
  4. Kenyon Martin - Kendrick Perkins gives Ok. City that nastiness that was missing in last year's playoffs. The Nuggets already have that in spades with Kenyon Martin, who will need to assume the role of aggravator in the paint. 
5 Predictions
  1. Kenyon Martin and Kendrick Perkins tussle at some point
  2. This series goes 7
  3. J.R. Smith explodes for 30 in a game
  4. The New York 3 shine
  5. Durant and co. shine a little more.
0 percent chance of being wrong playoff prediction:
Thunder in 7

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Bynum Update

It looks as though Andrew Bynum and the Lakers may have dodged a bullet. An MRI performed this morning on the 23-year old 7-footer revealed a bone bruise and no structural damage to his right knee.

Bynum left last night's game with 8 minutes left in the second quarter with a knee injury after stepping on Dujuan Blair's foot.

The injury is not deemed serious and according to reports, Bynum will be ready when the playoffs begin.

Bynum Goes Down

Andrew Bynum left last night's game against the Spurs in the second quarter after hyper-extending his right knee after stepping on the foot of Spurs power forward Dujuan Blair. Bynum the Lakers 23-year old, 7-foot center who has a history of knee problems, will undergo an MRI today.

Bynum sat on the floor for several minutes with his head in his hands after the injury. He was, however able to walk to the locker room under his own power. According to an ESPN.com report, he will not travel with the team to Sacramento for the Lakers season finale against the Kings.

Bynum had surgery on his right knee in July to repair a torn meniscus suffered during last season's NBA playoffs. The surgery caused him to miss the Lakers first 24 games of the season.

Ironically, Spurs head coach, Gregg Popovich rested Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli last night in order to give them some rest and protect them from injury heading into the playoffs. The Spurs had already locked up the one seed in the Western Conference but are in a battle with the Bulls for the NBA's best record, which gives the team home court advantage throughout the playoffs and NBA Finals. Popovich opted to rest his starters rather than going all in for the NBA's best record.

With a win tonight against the Kings, the Lakers will secure the second seed in the western conference and will likely play the New Orleans Hornets in the first round. But of course, Lakers officials as well as fans are only concerned about Andrew Bynum's MRI results. What does this mean? Well, depending on the results of Bynum's MRI, the Lakers may have to navigate through the loaded Western conference playoffs without the NBA's second best center — a crushing blow to the Lakers three-peat chances if he is to miss significant time.

9450 will update you when Bynum's MRI results are revealed.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Eastern Conference Playoff Previews

The matchups in the Eastern Conference were set in stone Monday night thanks to Philadelphia losing to Orlando and the Celtics losing in Washington. They are as follows:

1. Chicago  vs. 8. Indiana
2. Miami  vs. 7. Philadelphia
3. Boston  vs. 6. New York
4. Orlando vs. 5. Atlanta

Let's preview!

Chicago Vs. Indiana
Reg. Season H2H: Bulls 3-1
Good news for the Pacers: Bulls were 15-1 against central division. But guess who won that lone game?!
Bad news for the Pacers: Everything else. The Pacers would need a career performance from just about the entire roster. ...just to win one game. But why keep writing. You know the outcome. 
Prediction: Sweep.

Miami Vs. Philadelphia
Reg. Season H2H: Heat 3-0
I had such high hopes for Dougadelphia. Near Valentine's day, I begged them not to fall in love within .500. The Sixers stood at 36-34 when I mapped out a scenario that gives them the fifth seed in the East. And yet, here we are. Philly is 41-40, facing the Miami Heat in a 2-7 death matchup and staring at another first round playoff exit square in the face. The Sixers knew if they could hold on to the sixth seed they could make some legitimate noise in the playoffs against a vulnerable Celtics team. After beating the Hawks to pull within 3 games of the fifth seed, the Sixers managed to win only 4 of their next 10, including two gut-wrenching overtime losses to Sacramento at home and in Milwaukee. Many will talk of the Sixers climb out from the Atlantic Division basement, overcoming that 3-13 start, the development of their young players, and/or Doug Collins' well-deserved candidacy for coach of the year. It is all justifiable praise for a young, overachieving team the coach genuinely cares for. But let's not forget that there was an opportunity on the table that the Sixers simply could not take advantage of toward the end of the season. Such a shame.
Prediction: Heat in 5.

Boston Vs. New York
Reg Season H2H: Celtics 3-0
9 questions
  1. Will Shaq make it to NY?
  2. Can the Celtics big men create one semi-productive center?
  3. Will Jeff Green successfully fill the James Posey role of 2008?
  4. Can Rondo make his free throws if/when it matters?
  5. Who will win the Pierce vs. 'Melo matchup?
  6. Will the Knicks play defense?
  7. Will Stat outplay KG?
  8. Will a first round exit spell the end of the Doc era in Beantown?
  9. Can Chauncey survive a 7-game series?
4 X-Factors
  1. Toney Douglas
  2. Jeff Green
  3. Big Baby Davis
  4. Shawne Williams
5 predictions
  1. Rondo obliterates Chauncey for 47 minutes.
  2. Chauncey hits a game winner.
  3. Rondo bricks a crucial free throw
  4. Amare and Melo play lockdown D
  5. Other 7 Knicks Don't.
0 percent chance of being wrong playoff prediction:
Celtics in 6

Orlando Vs. Atlanta
Reg Season H2H:  Atlanta 1-3
The only good thing about this series is that one of these teams will be eliminated immediately. I don't see a scenario where either of these two teams create any sort of problems for the the Bulls or Heat in the later rounds of the playoffs.We know that Atlanta folds up shop when the team they're playing puts up an 8-0 run. The Magic on the other hand have Dwight Howard and shooters who are either washed up (I'm looking at you Hedo), injured (J.J. Redick), or defensively challenged (Hedo, Redick, Arenas, Ryan Anderson). Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson (Saint Joseph's!) form a nice combination and will ultimately wear down a Hawks team that lacked heart and desire all season.
Prediction: Magic in 6

Monday, April 11, 2011

Hollinger Vs. 9450

John Hollinger recently posted his picks for the All-NBA 1st, 2nd and 3rd teams via Twitter. Last week, I posted my picks via Twitter (@9450blog). Let's see how they stack up.

Hollinger:
1st: Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard.
2nd: Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge.
3rd: Russell Westbrook, Manu Ginobli, Paul Pierce, Kevin Love, Amare Stoudemire
Major Omissions: Chris Bosh
9450:
1st: Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard
2nd: Dwyane Wade, Russell.Westbrook, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, LaMarcus Aldridge
3rd: Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh
Major Omissions: CP3

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Playoff Predictions That May Not Happen At All

I'm bored. I won my fantasy league (thanks to drafting LeBron, Melo, D.Rose and Kevin Love with my first four picks) and the playoffs do not start until April 17. So I'm gonna make some predictions to fill the time.

With the Rockets defeat last night, the Western Conference playoff picture suddenly became clearer. The final seeding however is far from solidified (and yet I am making playoff predictions? Just bear with me). Teams at the top of the western conference are coasting to the finish line (gotta love the NBA), while the teams at the bottom are hitting their strides at the perfect moment.

Let's take a look at the last five games for the top 4 seeds:
Spurs - 2-3
Lakers - 3-2
Mavericks - 2-3
Thunder - 3-2
Total: 10-10

Final 4 seeds:
Nuggets: 4-1
Trail Blazers: 3-2
Hornets: 3-2
Grizzlies: 4-1
Total: 14-6

The top 4 seeds knew since January they were in the playoffs, chalk this up to early April indifference, right? I don't buy it. I see at least two upsets in the first round of the western conference.

Upset Alert One (and it's a biggy): Grizzlies (8) over Spurs (1).

Do you really think the Spurs want to play the Grizzlies in the first round? The Spurs are banged up, relying more and more on their bench and are coming off an ugly six-game losing streak before coming back and winning two straight. I understand the six-game losing streak coincided with Tim Duncan's sprained ankle, but the Spurs were exposed defensively. They rank 14th in total defense giving up 97.1 points a game. Respectable, but un-Spurs-like. Over their last 10 however, they're giving up 103.1 points a game.

The Grizzlies are firing on all cylinders right now, even without their leader Rudy Gay, who is out for the year with shoulder surgery. Tony Allen has filled in admirably for Gay, posting 16.1 pts. a game, while giving the Grizz sound defense, collecting 2.6 steals and just over one block a contest in the last five.

The Spurs have enjoyed an offensive renaissance this year rising all the way to third in offensive efficiency (109 points per 100 possessions). But will that hold up in the playoffs where the half court game reigns? The Grizz allow 97.7 points game, but employ athletic defensive stoppers, Tony Allen, newly acquired Shane Battier and Sam Young at the wing positions. Although allowing 97.7 points a game is middle of the pack, Memphis is first is defensive play rate. Zach Randolph's true rebounding rate of 20.3 doubles the league average and Marc Gasol is a more than capable true center on both ends of the floor.

Look, the Spurs are a one seed for a reason. While I never discount momentum, I also cannot ignore championship experience. The Grizzlies, well, have none. Grizzlies players have played in a combined 197 total playoff games. To put that in perspective, Tim Duncan has played in 170 playoff games in his career.

The Spurs have 654 combined playoff games under their belts. Only Tony Allen and newly signed Leon Powe have limited Finals experience for the Grizzlies. Allen will have to play a bigger role with the Grizzlies than he did as a member of the Celtics when he was asked to simply annoy his defensive assignment. Inexperience, coupled with increased roles in pressure situations could doom the Grizz. But I am sticking with my pick. Grizzlies in 7.